[세계 경제]중국의 임플레이션 싸움은 소비자들은 압박하기 시작하다

China Economy

China's Inflation Fight Starts to Squeeze Consumers

By Bruce Einhorn on March 11, 2013

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-03-11/chinas-inflation-fight-starts-to-squeeze-consumers#r=hpt-ls

While Japanese leaders have been making headlines by trying to end years of deflation and achieve an inflation target of 2 percent, their counterparts in China have a different fight on their hands. Far from promoting inflation, the Chinese are fighting to contain it—and the battle may get rougher in the months ahead. Consumer prices in China rose 3.2 percent last month, up from 2 percent in January. For the first two months of the year (a better measure, since the long Chinese New Year holiday fell in February this year and in January last year), inflation averaged 2.6 percent, half a percentage point higher than the average rate at the end of 2012.

China’s inflation fighters are making their stand at the National People’s Congress, now under way in Beijing. The NPC, China’s parliament, last week unveiled a new inflation target of 3.5 percent, down from an earlier goal of 4 percent. That “reduces room for pro-growth policies,” Bloomberg economist Michael McDonough wrote on March 8. “A modest economic rebound in China is likely to push inflation higher as the year progresses, potentially threatening the new target.”

The renewed fight against Chinese inflation could hurt growth in an economy that is finally getting back in gear after nearly two years of sluggishness. GDP growth in the world’s second-largest economy shrank for seven quarters in a row until the end of 2012. In the fourth quarter, Chinese GDP grew 7.9 percent and optimists could look to that growth providing momentum into 2013.

A bunch of data released over the past few days provides reason to be concerned about China’s ability to stay on track. Industrial output in the first two months of the year grew 9.9 percent, the government said on Saturday. That sounds impressive but it is down from 10.3 percent in December and is much lower than what many economists had been expecting: A median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg had industrial output growing at 10.6 percent. Similarly, retail sales grew 12.3 percent but economists had expected 13.8 percent.

We can expect more downbeat numbers in the coming months, according to Gordon Kwan, head of energy research at Mirae Asset Securities in Hong Kong. As the Chinese government reforms the way it responds to changes in oil prices, end users are likely to face higher energy costs, he says. That’s good news for state-owned oil companies but bad news for consumers. “The new pricing regime will ensure profitability for both PetroChina (PTR) and Sinopec’s (SNP) refining divisions, while passing on higher energy costs to consumers to encourage them not to waste fuel,” Kwan told Bloomberg News. “Higher fuel costs should slow China’s GDP growth from 7.8 percent last year to the target of 7.5 percent this year.”

Economists at HSBC (HBC) and Standard Chartered Bank aren’t as worried. Yes, the latest set of economic numbers “was a bit soft overall,” Wei Li, Stephen Green, and Lan Shen of Standard Chartered write in a report published today, “but we remain upbeat on China’s recovery.” They say the disappointing data for retail sales reflected new President Xi Jinping’s high-profile campaign against excessive government spending on banquets, gifts, and other goodies. With China’s housing market on the rebound and producers’ confidence on the rise, the Standard Chartered economists predict GDP growth this year should hit 8.3 percent. In a March 10 report, HSBC economists Qu Hongbin and Sun Junwei say February’s inflation spike will be “temporary,” thanks to falling producer prices. Qu and Sun see consumer price inflation falling below 3 percent in the coming months.

요약

 일본이 인플레이션 2%로 증가시키겠다고 발표한 반면에, 중국은 인플레이션이 평균 2.6% 증가하여 3.5% 인플레이션을 낮추겠다고 새 인플레이션 목표를 발표했다. 중국의 인플레이션에 대한 새로운 싸움은 경제 성장에 타격을 줄 수 있다. 세계에서 두 번째로 큰 GDP 성장은 2012년 말까지 7개의 분기 동안 하락했고, 4번째 분기에는 7.9% 성장하여 2013년으로 가는 성장 동력으로 보는 이들도 있다. 올해 첫 두달의 산업적 성과는 9.9% 증가했다고 발표했다. 하지만 이는 12월에서 10.3% 하락한 수치이며, 많은 경제학자들이 기대했던 것보다 더 낮은 수치라고 한다. 

 중국 정부가 유가 변화에 대해 반응함에 따라, 최종 사용자들에게는 더 많은 에너지 비용을 직면하게 될 것이라고 한다. 이는 국영 석유 기업에게는 좋은 소식이지만, 소비자들에게는 좋지 않은 소식이다. 더 상승한 연료 비용은 중국의 GDP 성장을 느리게 할 것이라고 한다. 

 오늘 발표된 보고서에서 최근 경제 수치는 전반적으로 무난했지만, 중국의 경제 회복에 긍정적일 것으로 본다고 했다. 실망스러운 소매상의 매출 자료는 과도한 정부 지출에 대항하는 새 대통령 Xi Jinping의 캠페인을 반영한다. 중국 주택 시장의 회복과 생산자의 신뢰 상승으로. 경제학자들은 올해 중국의 GDP 성장은 8.3%로 전망하고 있다. 3월 10일 보고서에서 경제학자  Qu Hongbin과 Sun Junwei는 생산자 가격의 하락으로 인해 2월의 인플레이션 폭등은 일시적일 것이라고 했다. 또한 다음 달에 소비자 물자는 3% 하락할 것으로 본다.