[세계 경제]여전히 내가 필요할까?

China's workforce

Will you still need me?

Jan 21st 2013, 16:55 by S.C. | HONG KONG

http://www.economist.com/blogs/analects/2013/01/chinas-workforce

ON FRIDAY, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that China's working-age population shrank last year. In the slow-moving world of demographics, that felt like a dramatic turning point: "peak toil", if you like. The mobilisation of Chinese labour over the past 35 years has shaken the world. Never before has the global economy benefited from such a large addition of human energy.

And now the additions are over. The ending came rather sooner than expected. The percentage of Chinese who are of working age started falling in 2011. But the number of working-age Chinese was expected to grow for a few more years yet. As recently as 2005, official projections suggested it would grow until the mid-2020s.

I'm not sure why demographers got it wrong. Predicting future rates of longevity and especially fertility is undeniably hard. But surely it isn't that difficult to figure out how many people aged seven today will become 15 (and thus of working age) in eight years' time. Therefore, it shouldn't be that hard to predict the near future of the working-age population. Perhaps the difficulty lies not with prediction so much as measurement. As I understand it, the yearly estimates of China's population are based on an annual national survey of about 1.5m people. Given the size of China's population, it would be easy to miscalculate the numbers by a few million here or there. Such errors could easily throw a projection out by a few years.

Also worth bearing in mind is the definition of working age. In last year's press release, working age was defined as 15-64 years old. That is a common age range used by the UN's Population Division and China's own Statistical Yearbook. But for the purposes of Friday's press conference, the NBS changed the definition, referring instead to 15-59 year olds. The number of Chinese in this age group declined by 3.45m, it reported (see chart). But the number of people aged 15-64 seems to be increasing still. It rose to 1.004 billion in 2012 (I inferred this total based on other numbers provided in the press conference).

There's nothing wrong with either age range. The 15-64 range reflects common international practice and China's own past definition. The 15-59 range is probably a better reflection of China's economic reality, where men can retire from formal jobs at 60 and women often retire five or ten years earlier. (According to the National Transfer Accounts pioneered by Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason, 60 is the age at which the average Chinese earns less than he consumes, becoming, in effect, a dependant.)

But it's interesting that the NBS chose to rejig the definition of working age for this press conference. One can only assume they chose the 15-59 age group precisely because its numbers are already declining. That allowed them to highlight a worrying demographic trend. In response to a reporter's question, Ma Jiantang, the head of the NBS, said he did not want the population figures to be lost in the sea of data.

It is almost as if China's statisticians decided to set the clock a few minutes fast to make sure China's policymakers have good time to prepare for their impending demographic duties.

요약

 통계청은 중국의 노동 인구의 연령이 낮아졌다고 발표했다. 지난 35년 동안 중국의 노동력은 세계를 뒤흔들었다. 세계 경제가 엄청난 인적 자원의 추가로 인해 혜택을 누린 적이 없었다. 그리고 이제 그 인적 자원의 추가는 끝났다. 2011년에 중국의 노동 인구의 연령이 낮아지기 시작했으나 향후 몇 년 동안은 높아질 것으로 예상했다. 공식 계획은 2020년 중반까지 높아질 것이라고 한다.

 미래의 장수율과 특히 생식율을 예측하는 것은 어렵다. 하지만 7살의 인구가 8년 후에 노동 인구가 몇 명이 되는지 파악하는 것은 어렵지 않다. 그러므로, 미래의 노동 인구의 연령을 예측하는 것은 어렵지 않다. 아마도 거짓된 예측이 아니라 측정의 어려움일 수도 있다. 중국의 인구 규모를 고려했을 때, 오차가 나는 것은 쉽다. 이러한 오차가 잘못된 예측을 가져오기 쉽다. 

 작년 보도 자료에서, 노동 연령은 15-64세로 정의되었다. 즉 이는 UN의 인구 부문과 중국의 통계 연감과 똑같다는 것을 의미한다. 하지만 이번 기자 회견을 목적으로 통계청이 15-59세로 노동 연령을 바꿨다. 15-59세의 중국인 수는 345만명이 줄어들었고, 15-64세의 인구 수는 여전히 증가하고 있다. 15-59세의 노동 연령 범위는 아마도 남성은 60세에 퇴직을 하고, 여성은 5-10년 더 빨리 퇴직을 하고 있는 중국 경제의 현실을 반영한 것일 것이다. 

통계청이 기자 회견에서 노동 인구의 연령은 재조정한 것은 흥미롭다. 이미 15-59세의 인구가 감소하고 있기 때문에 우려하고 있는 인구통계학적 추세를 강조한 것으로 추정한다. 중국의 정책 입안자들이 임박한 통계학적 직무를 준비하는 데 시간을 보내고 있는지 확인하기 위해 시간을 설정하기로 결정한 것처럼 보인다.